Table of Contents

What’s Good To Know First 11
The Purpose 11
The Scope of the Problem 12
The Target Audience 14
The Reader’s Challenge 14
A Companion Spreadsheet 15
The Investing Assumptions 15
An Evidence-Based Guide — Applying Science to Data 15
The Modern Mechanics — What’s New Here? 17
The Past Versus the Future 18
Systemic Withdrawals and the Retirement-Income Philosophy 18
The One-Page Reference Guide 20

Chapter 1: Investing During Retirement is Different 22
The Landscape 23
The Revolution in Financial Economics 24
The Modern Mechanics 26
The Point 30

Chapter 2: Understanding Risk During Retirement 32
Defining the Risk 32
Breaking Down Risk 33
 Known and Speculative Risk 35
 The Risk Factors 36
Measuring the Risk 41
Specific Markets versus the Global Market 43
The Hazard of a Data-Mining Bias 45
Putting Risk Factors to Use 46
The Point 48

Chapter 3: Surveying and Selecting an Income-Harvesting Strategy 52
The Backtesting Details 53
 The Default Parameters and Assumptions 53
 Interpreting the Results 53
 Required Caveats 54
Traditional Rebalancing — The Baseline Income-Harvesting Strategy 55
An Introductory Survey of Income-Harvesting Strategies 58
 Bonds-First Strategy 59
 Age-Based Strategies: 100-Age, 120-Age, and Glidepath 62
 The Guyton PMR Strategy 65
 The Parker Strategy 69
 The Weiss Strategy 72
 The OmegaNot Strategy 75
 Three-Bucket Strategy 77
 The Enhanced Two-Bucket Strategy 81
 The Rational Strategy 84
 The Prime Harvesting Strategy – A New Strategy 87
 Other Strategies Investigated But Not Included 93
Comparing the Strategies 94
 Identifying the Top Performers 94
 Considering Different Asset Allocations 103
Valuation-Based Strategies 108
A Closer Look at Bond Levels 109
A Prime Harvesting Example 114
Final Observations 116
The Point 116

Chapter 4: Surveying and Selecting a Variable-Withdrawal Strategy 117
The Background Details 118
 Backtesting Specifics 118
 Interpreting the Survey Backtesting Results 119
 Key Definitions 119
The Baseline: Fixed-Rate Inflation-Adjusted Withdrawals 120
An Introductory Survey of Variable-Withdrawal Strategies 121
 Strategy 1: Fixed-Percent Withdrawals 122
 Strategy 2: The 95% Rule 123
 Strategy 3: Decision Rules 125
 Strategy 4: Floor-to-Ceiling Rule 128
 Strategy 5: Sensible Withdraws 129
 Strategy 6: Endowment Formula 132
 Strategy 7: Mortality Updating Failure Percentage 133
 Strategy 8: Extended Mortality Updating Failure Percentage (EM and ECM) 136
 Strategy 9: Delta-Prime: A New Strategy 140
Comparing the Strategies 143
 Introducing the Harvesting-Rate Efficiency Metric (HREFF) 144
 Comparing the Strategies  An Initial Take 149
 Capping Withdrawal Rates 150
 Considering the Bernicke Effect 152
 A Focus on the Markets’ Poorest Retirement Periods 153
 The Top Three Strategies with Long Retirements 154
 Pushing Harder on the Top Three Strategies 157
Recommendations, with Concluding Thoughts 160
An EM Example 164
The Point 166

Chapter 5: Introducing The Harvesting Ratio — A Retirement Portfolio Metric 168
Return, Volatility, and Modern Portfolio Theory 169
Defining the Harvesting Ratio 173
The Evidence Supporting HR 177
A Few More Details 199
 Retirement Lengths 199
 Withdrawal Rates 199
 Inflation Estimates 199
Concluding Thoughts 200
The Point 201

Chapter 6: Defining a Baseline Market and Portfolio 203
Global Diversification 203
Defining a Baseline Market 206
Considering a Low-Return World 209
Defining a Baseline Portfolio 209
Initial Backtesting Numbers 210
Final Thoughts 211
The Point 212

Chapter 7: Setting the Stock Percentage 214
The Assumptions and the Goal 215
Finding and Substantiating the Right Percentage 216
Other Measures and Tradeoffs 225
The Recommendations 228
The Point 229

Chapter 8: Portfolio Construction Using the Harvesting Ratio 231
Applying HR to the Lazy Portfolios 231
Focusing on Equally-Weighed Stock Allocations 238
Considering Market-Specific Risk 241
A Look at the Underlying Portfolio Makeup 242
Subdividing Emerging Markets and REITs 244
What About Bonds 245
The Recommendations 246
The Point 248

Chapter 9: Using Valuations: Picking the Initial Withdrawal Rate 250
Forming a Retirement-Valuation Metric 251
Tilting the Initial Withdrawal Rate 257
A Look at Global Markets 259
Tilting the Tilt  Adding Global Valuations 261
A Step-by-Step Example 263
Concluding Thoughts 265
Broader Valuation Considerations 265
The Point 266

Chapter 10: Putting It All Together 268
The Preliminary Details 268
Representative Plans and Their Numbers 269
 The Benchmark 40-Year Retirement Plan with Variations 270
 A Typical 30-Year Retirement Plan 278
 20-Year and 15-Year Plans 279
 An Early-Retirement 50-Year Plan 280
 A Less Volatile but Affordable Plan 283
 A Plan to Boost Income without Excessive Risk 285
 A Plan for Increasing Bequest Value 288
Emergency Funding and Frontloading Income 289
Restarting Systemic Withdrawals 291
Considering Total Income 291
Final Thoughts 292
The Point 293

Chapter 11: Underpinning Systemic Withdrawals with Guaranteed Income 296
A Framework for Considering Guaranteed Income 297
 A Realistic Systemic-Withdrawal Benchmark 298
 A Failure-Market Benchmark 299
 Repositioning ECM Over EM 304
 Requisite Inflation Protection 306
 An Essential-Income Rate 307
 A Notion of Cost 308
 A Notion of Affordability 309
 Unexpected Expenses 310
 A Note on Taxes and Investing Expenses 311
The Top Guaranteed-Income Instruments 312
 TIPS Bond Ladder 312
 Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs 317
 I Bonds 319
Less Desirable Instruments 321
 Bond Funds 321
 Nominal Bonds, Certificates of Deposit, and Related Securities 323
 Nominal Annuities 324
 Variable Annuities 324
 Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit Rider 325
 Inflation-Adjusted Deferred Immediate Annuities 325
Strategic Pitfalls to Avoid 329
 Over-Relying on a Stock Pool to Replenish GI 329
 Wrong Timing of GI Purchases 330
 Fortifying Against Longevity Risk without an Income Floor 332
 Too Much GI, Reducing Flexibility 334
 Too Little GI with High Valuations 334
The Most Viable Basic Strategies for Guaranteed Income 335
 A Blanket of Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs 335
 A Standby Bond Pool (Used Alone) 338
 An Extended TIPS Ladder (Replenished by a Standby Bond Pool) 342
 A Simulated Deferred “Annuity” (Funded by a Standby Bond Pool) 345
 A Valuation-Based Strategy for Timing Guaranteed-Income Purchases 349
The Recommendations: A Combination of Strategies and Costs 352
The Toll of Annuity-Free GI Solutions 370
Examples and Application 376
Final Thoughts 384
The Point 384

Appendix A: The Historical Datasets 385

Appendix B: Incorporating TIPS Ladders into Systemic Withdrawals 387

About the Author From the Author 390

If You Like This Book 390

Index